July 22, 2026
There is no current flood emergency at Delta Beach. However, members are already seeing the effects of higher water levels.
In areas where there is normally 10 to 50 metres of exposed sand in front of cottages, the water has moved close to, or reached, or exceeded the shoreline. This is consistent with Lake Manitoba now reaching 812.5 feet, the top of the Province’s normal operating range.
This does not mean homes are about to flood. The provincial flood stage remains 814 feet. It does mean that the storage normally available within the operating range has now been used and the lake is expected to rise further.
Water Is Still Entering the Lake
Flows through the Portage Diversion are declining as the Assiniboine flood wave recedes. That is encouraging and was expected.
The latest direct measurement showed approximately 10,700 cubic feet per second moving through the diversion on July 20. More recent provisional information suggests the flow has continued to decline.
However, the Portage Diversion is not the lake’s only major source of water.
As of July 21:
- The Waterhen River was contributing approximately 8,800 cubic feet per second
- The Whitemud River at Westbourne was contributing approximately 1,850 cubic feet per second
- The Fairford River was releasing approximately 3,600 cubic feet per second
The Waterhen and Whitemud alone were therefore adding almost three times as much water as Fairford was removing.
Once the Portage Diversion and other inflows are included, substantially more water continues to enter Lake Manitoba than is leaving it.
Where the Lake Is Headed
Lake Manitoba will continue rising while total inflows exceed Fairford outflow, evaporation and other natural losses.
Assuming diversion and tributary flows continue to decline, no major additional rainfall occurs and Fairford remains near its current discharge, the lake could rise to approximately:
- 812.6 feet over the next few days
- 812.6 to 812.7 feet by the weekend
- A possible crest near 812.7 to 812.8 feet in late July or early August
These are planning estimates, based on my experience as the former Director of the Province’s Resource Information Services (the group that developed and ran the computer flood forecasting water models) – it is not an official provincial forecast.
The actual level will depend on rainfall, evaporation(hot sunny days help us), wind, tributary flows, the rate at which diversion flows decline and Fairford operations.
Why Fairford Matters
Lake Manitoba has only one controlled outlet: the Fairford River Water Control Structure.
The Delta Beach Association previously asked the Province to operate Fairford at the maximum safe discharge and create additional storage capacity in Lake Manitoba.
The Province acknowledged receiving our correspondence, but we have not received a substantive response.
Published Fairford flow has declined in recent days. This does not necessarily mean that the Province reduced the opening. Fairford flow is affected by wind, and strong north winds can move water away from the outlet and temporarily reduce the measured discharge.
The more important question is whether Fairford is fully open and whether the Province has taken any action to increase outflow and begin restoring storage.
At present, the Province has not provided that information.
What 2011 Taught Us
Current conditions are not comparable to the scale of the 2011 flood.
The relevant lesson from 2011 is that Fairford cannot create storage quickly once a major event is already underway.
During the 2011 flood, Fairford was operating at full capacity and releasing record volumes of water. Despite that, Lake Manitoba continued rising because water was entering the lake faster than Fairford could remove it.
The lake eventually reached approximately 817.2 feet, almost five feet above the top of its normal operating range.
Fairford was not ineffective. However, it can not lower the lake quickly once the major inflows had already begun.
That is why creating storage now matters.
Lake Manitoba has reached the top of its operating range. If the watershed experiences further heavy rainfall, a wet fall or another significant runoff event, more water will be entering a lake that already has little normal storage remaining.
Residents Can Ask the Province
Members and other residents around Lake Manitoba may wish to contact the Province directly and ask:
- What steps are being taken now to restore storage in Lake Manitoba?
- What is the Province’s plan if the lake remains above its operating range into the fall?
- What contingency plans are in place if there is additional significant rainfall?
The immediate concern is not that Lake Manitoba is currently at flood stage. It is that the lake is already visibly high, is expected to rise further and now has less capacity to absorb another significant rainfall or runoff event.
This is the time for proactive management and clear public communication.
Scott Greenlay
President
Delta Beach Association
