May 17, 2011 (sent May 18th 12:41:14 AM)

Tuesday 17 May 2011 UPDATE
 
Good Evening, this is the National, with Peter Mansbridge…err, OK, sorry, a little humour isn’t a bad thing. Sorry it’s so little.
 
Looks like I missed a few requests to be added to the mailing list last night, so am including yesterdays update at the BOTTOM of this email for those of you I missed.
 
Current Situation
Today’s Lake Level: 814.631 Up 0.03 feet from yesterday…we’re lucky again!
Diversion Inflow : 32,950 cfs
Hoop and Hollar Cut Flow : 400 cfs
Assiniboine River is expected to Peak at Inlet to the Diversion in the next few days
 
Summer-like weather and light south winds continued today, helping counter Diversion inflows through evaporation. South winds continue to push water to North Basin.
 
Forecast for tomorrow is slightly cooler, and light winds from the SE to East. Still very good news – Hurray!
 
Update Lake Level Forecast Information
Today Water Stewardship provided an update to their Lake level forecast of 815.3 to 815.8 feet to show what effect a strong north wind would have on the south basin if the water was at 815.5 feet.
 
They provided a map showing what a sustained North Wind of 60 km/h would do to Lake level including Wind Set upto us in the South Basin(Note: This is basically what we at the beach often call Wind Tide). That number is 818.5 feet(Note that does not include wave height). So basically a 3 foot Wind Set-up(Wind Tide).
 
Here is the Map: http://www.gov.mb.ca/waterstewardship/floodinfo/forecast_centre/maps/inundation_maps/rm_portagelaprairie.pdf
 
How high would the waves be? They haven’t provided this information, as it is a tough question to answer, as wave height increases with duration of the wind blowing. The longer the wind blows in one direction, the higher the Waves and the Higher the Wind set-up.
 
You may wish to take this new information into account when determing your home protection plan. Basically:
Water Height + Wind Set-up + Your Guess at Wave Height = How High You Need to Be(or if you are low – how high your need to be)
 
Some Good News in the News
The Province announced today they are going to start looking at the communities effected on Lake Manitoba. They plan to first have general meetings with the RMs and Communities within the next few days.
 
They also wanted to point out that “if natural conditions were in place, it is estimated that today, levels on Lake Manitoba would be approximately 1.1 ft higher.” (Note to Readers: Please don’t shoot the messenger).
 
Far West Beach Road Access
More Good News. Beyond our emails to the RM/EMO last week – Val Smith wrote another email today, and called the RM as well . We are pleased to report that Terry Simpson called today and indicated the RM would start working on the road tomorrow likely with gravel to increase it’s height, so Far West cottagers can access their homes.
 
Elevations
A number of people have been asking about Elevations. I contacted the RM Planning office, in hopes that they might have some elevations they could share – even if unofficial. To help people determine individual home elevations. They indicated their only known elevation is 815.7 feet at the top of the Northwest Corner of the Channel bridge(the cement).
 
I also spoke to the RM as there had been elevations for most of the homes in the South of the Cut area both before and after dike building. They weren’t sure who did it, but thought it might be Hydro. I spoke to the Hydro office today, and the indicated it wasn’t them – as they only have 3 surveyors in the entire Province. They suggested I try Highways. I wasn’t able to reach anyone, but will try again tomorrow.
 
In meantime, if anyone knows there property elevations, EMAIL me, and I will post tomorrow, to help others.
 
If you know a surveyor who can help out, please let us know.
 
Volunteer Save Delta Projects
East Channel Bridge – Further to last report, we have some volunteers, and can use more, but hope to have this all figured out tomorrow. Plan is to use the Super SandBags to protect the East Channel Bridge, as once it is underwater, because it is a River, gravel won’t help us out. If you want to volunteer for this project, or have knowledge of how these work…please contact Don Clarkson.
 
Pump Out Centre Cottages – Has progressed well, and only Middleditch’s cottage now has water up to the front door. A volunteer has been found to keep the pumps gased and running.
 
Sand Diking Supervisors for the Elderly and Unable – No names have come forward. If you are able/willing to assist someone who can’t lead their own diking, please contact me. We already have two people who could really use the help.
 
Next Big Push
We’re thinking about trying to organize the next big sand bagging push for this weekend, as it looks like the weather will hold until then. SO think about it, and we’ll have more info tomorrow night.
 
Closing Thoughts
You might wonder if we should wait on the RM and the Province. However, with so many communities around Lake Manitoba, and the difficulty EMO had handling the 150 in the Hoop and Holler cut, we might just continue to be told, they would love to help, but can’t. Meanwhile, we would have lost valuable preparation time. In addition, if we do the math on the info they published today on Wind Set-up numbers with current lake levels (814.6 feet) and a 60 km/h wind from the North, according to their numbers, the East Channel Bridge would be under 2 feet of water.
 
Therefore, we think we should keep going on the preparation and ensuring as many as possible have road access. The old saying “Forewarned is Forearmed”.
 
Well that’s what we know tonight. Keep hoping for more dry weather and south winds!
 
 
 
Scott Greenlay
DBA Board Member
#37 East
 
 
Here is last nites report for those I didn’t have emails for:


Monday 16 May 2011 UPDATE

Hello,
 
Thank you again for the kind emails about the updates. Am glad that they are helpful. The hope is that by sharing information, we can work better as a community, and maybe reduce the stress a bit.
 
 
Scott Greenlay
DBA Board member
#37 East
———————————————————————————————————————
P.S. Important info from previous emails for those of you who might have missed them:
 
How High will the Lake get?
Information on projected lake level can be found on the Governemtns website located here:
http://www.gov.mb.ca/waterstewardship/floodinfo/lakes_information.html#inundation_maps
If you click on the “Portage La Prairie” link, it will show you a map of our end of the lake, and the expected water.
Basically, they are saying “Manitoba Water Stewardship expects peak water levels for Lake Manitoba’s south basin may reach between 815.2 and 815.6 feet above sea level ”
 
How high is the Lake today?
You can check the current lake level each day by going to the website:
http://www.gov.mb.ca/waterstewardship/floodinfo/forecasts_reports.html#daily_flood_sheets
and clicking “Flood Sheet” for Manitoba Lakes. 
 
How High is my Home?
If you don’t know, check your survey certificate, it might have an elevation. Ask a neighbour, they might know. The difference between your elevation and the expected lake level gives you a good idea of how you sit.
 
If you want to sand bag your home
Here is the URL to the Manitoba Govm’t Website for building a sandbag wall:
http://www.gov.mb.ca/emo/home/prepare/sandbag.html

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