Flood outlook

With growing snow cover and spring on the horizon, people are wondering about what the outlook is for Lake Manitoba this summer.

Dr Scott Forbes, Scientist for the Association of Lake Manitoba Stakeholders, has provided an analysis of the Province’s first flood outlook:

The first flood outlook was published by the province this week and is not particularly good news for Lake Manitobans. We can expect significant flows on the Portage Diversion (more than needed to clear ice on the lower Assiniboine). With flooding expected on the Red River, we should expect the Portage Diversion to be used by the province to reduce Assiniboine River flows to Winnipeg, which means more water will be diverted than needed to protect against just Assiniboine River flooding. The good news is that there is some freeboard on Lake Manitoba, with the lake currently sitting 12” below the top end of the operating range. Lake Manitoba will rise during the spring freshet: it is just a question of how much, and that will be largely dependent on weather conditions from this point forward.

The province is forecasting that Lake Manitoba will remain within its operating range (below 812.5 feet) even under adverse (upper decile) weather conditions. The Fairford Water Control Structure is currently operating at 85% of capacity. It will be opened to 100% capacity when Lake Manitoba reaches 812.5 feet.

Dr Forbes complete article can be found by clicking Here

The government of Manitoba Flood outlook can be found by clicking Here

About scott greenlay

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